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Last October, the system's creator, Allan Lichtman, a professor at Washington's American University, was reported in this space to be saying that the year looked Democratic, pending only some "cataclysmic" change in circumstances.

Today's column is agnostic as to whom the Democrats will nominate. For purposes of the general-election prediction, it doesn't matter.

Of the 13 factors the systems considers, seven now favor the Democrats. Only six are needed for it to win.

Specifically, the Democrats have recently increased their numbers in Congress.

And the Democrats do not have to confront a sitting president

Meanwhile, the economy has been growing at about 2.7 percent a year during this term, as opposed to 3.2 percent during the previous eight years. That's three keys.

Also, Bush has failed to enact any major change in national direction in his second term.

He has not had any major foreign policy success. But there's the major failure: Iraq.